With the main phase of the Hezbollah conflict over, Israel is now executing its post-conflict play: a coordinated strategy to shape the new political order on its northern border. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu outlined this play on Sunday, which includes leveraging military success to secure peace deals with Syria and Lebanon.
The key move in this play is engaging the new, post-Assad government in Syria. Israel has quickly entered into direct negotiations, aiming to establish a new, stable security regime on the Golan Heights. A Syrian official has confirmed that the goal is to finalize this new arrangement by the end of 2025.
Another critical part of the strategy is to permanently sideline Hezbollah in Lebanon. Israel is using a combination of continued military pressure and diplomatic support for the Lebanese state to achieve this. The Lebanese government’s decision to disarm the militia shows this play is advancing successfully.
Netanyahu explained the logic behind his post-conflict strategy. “Our victories… have opened a window,” he said, framing the war as the opening move that set up the rest of the game. He confirmed that the subsequent moves with Syria are already showing “some progress.”
The endgame of this strategy is a fundamentally new northern order. A demilitarized and non-hostile Syria, coupled with a sovereign Lebanon in full control of its territory, would be a strategic victory for Israel, transforming the post-conflict landscape into a post-conflict peace.