The Ukraine conflict has become a clash of two opposing strategies: Russia’s brutal war of attrition versus a new American-led diplomatic sprint. As Russian forces grind away on the 1,000-kilometre front line, President Donald Trump is pushing for a rapid resolution through a high-stakes summit with Vladimir Putin.
Russia’s strategy, as assessed by the Institute for the Study of War, is to outlast Ukraine and the West, believing that time is on its side. This is evident in the relentless assaults in Donetsk and the effort to pin down Ukrainian forces in Sumy.
In stark contrast, Trump is attempting a diplomatic sprint. By setting an August 15 deadline for his summit and potential new sanctions, he is trying to force a conclusion to the long-running conflict. His optimistic rhetoric and hints of a quick deal based on land swaps reflect a desire for a swift, decisive outcome.
These two strategies are fundamentally incompatible. The Alaska summit will be the moment they collide. The key question is whether Trump’s diplomatic urgency can overcome Putin’s perceived strategy of patient, grinding warfare, or if the sprint for peace will falter in the face of a determined war of attrition.