President Vladimir Putin has made a strategically safe bet, committing Russia to a year of voluntary nuclear limits in a move that carries minimal risk while offering significant potential rewards. The policy allows him to project an image of responsibility without tying his hands in the long term.
The bet is on maintaining the current nuclear balance. By adhering to the expired New START caps, Putin is essentially betting that the U.S. will find it difficult to rapidly expand its own arsenal or justify doing so in the face of Russian restraint. This makes the status quo the most likely outcome in the short term.
The risk is low because the commitment is both temporary and conditional. Putin’s explicit linkage of the policy to U.S. reciprocity gives him an easy and justifiable exit strategy if Washington chooses to escalate, allowing him to blame the U.S. for any subsequent arms race.
The potential reward is high. If the U.S. does reciprocate, Putin can claim a diplomatic victory, having successfully initiated a de-escalation that could lead to a “substantive strategic dialogue” and an improved global standing for Russia.
For the next year, this low-risk, high-reward strategy will be in play. It is a shrewd move that places the burden of risk on the United States, forcing it to make a more difficult strategic choice.